Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DD 0xdd42…2355 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$66 (+15%) realized +$98 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$31
crypto 9% +$27
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 83% 67% +13.0%
≤30d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 83% 67% +13.0%
≤90d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 83% 67% +13.0%
all 6 +23.5% +11.7% 83% 67% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 67% +13.0%
10% +1.0% 67% +2.1%
15% -8.7% 67% -7.7%
20% -17.7% 50% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.31 per $1 lost it wins $10.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage18d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $70 $38 −$32 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$11 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $41 +$27 +65%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +66%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 28 $146 +$3 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 28 $157 +$59 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 59¢ $41 19h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 24h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $42 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $104 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.31 · official $37.36 (match) · 14 history records