Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xdd40…6582 other 82 markets active 4d ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$669 (-3%) realized −$668 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 48L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$153
other 29% −$468
world 10% −$266
culture 9% −$30
economics 5% −$7
tech 3% +$10
crypto 2% −$3
sports 2% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -48.9% -53.8% 22% 17% -7.6%
≤30d 23 -48.9% -53.8% 22% 17% -7.6%
≤90d 23 -48.9% -53.8% 22% 17% -7.6%
all 80 -17.7% -25.5% 40% 16% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 16% -12.4%
10% -32.7% 14% -20.8%
15% -39.2% 14% -28.5%
20% -45.1% 8% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$668
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage227d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $19 +$76 +388%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 +$56 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $73 +$30 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Latvia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Winter Games 2026: Lindsey Vonn to medal? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? Jun 11 $15 +$18 +120%
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Asa Ando (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpin Jun 11 $48 +$1 +2%
No Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Februa Feb 13 $13 +$6 +45%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5 Feb 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Palantir dip to $150 in January? Feb 06 $558 −$558 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $528 +$4 +1%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jan 27 $664 $0 +0%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Jan 27 $477 −$181 -38%
Kenneth Walker III: Rushing Yards O/U 54.5 Jan 27 $165 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Dec 31 $533 +$17 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 17 $543 +$8 +2%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 17 $941 −$54 -6%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 14 $487 −$10 -2%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 06 $374 +$33 +9%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m? Dec 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 01 $593 −$11 -2%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 01 $495 +$95 +19%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Nov 30 $98 +$2 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 27 $5 +$5 +95%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Nov 26 $1,310 −$85 -6%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Nov 26 $2 $0 +9%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Nov 25 $32 +$12 +38%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $1,634 −$25 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Nov 23 $52 +$46 +88%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Nov 22 $648 −$14 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $52 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $7 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $31 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $31 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $31 6d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $73 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $46 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $58 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $19 6d
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 111d
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 111d
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? BUY No 5¢ $3 111d
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? BUY No 5¢ $9 111d
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 111d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 111d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 111d
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 111d
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 111d
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 111d
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 111d
Will Base be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 111d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? SELL No 51¢ $28 117d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? SELL No 41¢ $1 117d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? SELL No 32¢ $1 118d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? SELL No 31¢ $3 118d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? SELL No 23¢ $1 118d
Will Latvia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 0¢ $2 122d
Will Denmark win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol BUY Yes 0¢ $1 122d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? BUY No 5¢ $4 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.88 · official $88.88 (match) · 662 history records