Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DD 0xdd3f…b7c9 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$181 (-15%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$165
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$62
other 13% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +38.0% +24.9% 50% 48% +10.9%
≤30d 58 +12.8% +2.1% 43% 40% -6.6%
≤90d 62 +11.1% +0.5% 44% 40% -7.6%
all 62 +11.1% +0.5% 44% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 40% -7.6%
10% -9.1% 37% -16.4%
15% -17.9% 31% -24.5%
20% -26.0% 26% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage81d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $93 +$63 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $76 +$115 +151%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $99 −$97 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $49 +$127 +259%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$60 +582%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $3 +$1 +25%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$15 +148%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 23 $7 +$13 +186%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $9 +$8 +93%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $7 −$3 -38%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Set 1 Winner: Johnson vs Arango Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$3 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$29 +278%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 +$19 +47%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $17 −$2 -10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $9 +$2 +17%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +102%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -25%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$9 -46%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$10 +53%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$9 -24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29 +$44 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $156 36m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $93 59m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $192 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $99 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $41 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $36 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $176 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $49 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $20 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 6h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $26 6h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 100¢ $4 7h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 8h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $25 8h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 79¢ $3 8h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $13 8h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 79¢ $10 9h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea SELL 99¢ $20 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea BUY 34¢ $7 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $9 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $8 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $6 2d
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $4 2d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Lorenzo Sonego 52¢ $4 2d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 82¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records