Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DD 0xdd3d…4772 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$85 (-37%) realized −$85 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-8.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+0.8%	-8.8%	33%	33%	-51.4%
≤30d	6	+0.8%	-8.8%	33%	33%	-51.4%
≤90d	6	+0.8%	-8.8%	33%	33%	-51.4%
all	6	+0.8%	-8.8%	33%	33%	-51.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.8%	33%	-51.4%
10%	-17.5%	33%	-56.1%
15%	-25.5%	33%	-60.3%
20%	-32.8%	33%	-64.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$28 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.2 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized−$85

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage3d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$31	$31	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	+$11	+56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$118	−$109	-93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$13	−$1	-9%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$13	−$1	-9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$14	−$1	-10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$16	+$11	+69%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$32	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$9	40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	4¢	$9	40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$106	42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$12	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$12	2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	26¢	$12	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	23¢	$12	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$13	2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$13	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	20¢	$13	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$14	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$16	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.06 · official $31.06 (match) · 15 history records