Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd3c…fa85 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 32L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 27% +$3
crypto 12% +$1
sports 8% $0
tech 3% +$1
politics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.2% 40% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 0% -9.8%
all 60 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $43 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $23 −$3 -12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 09 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 31 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? May 25 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 24 $17 $0 +2%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 21 $2 $0 -14%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 26 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $43 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $31 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $35 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $29 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $17 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $45 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $26 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $35 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 193 history records