Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd3c…35cf crypto 681 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$23,630 (+118%) realized −$7,508 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%324W / 739L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day386.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,224
7 days−$7,908
14 days−$7,508
30 days−$7,508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$573
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 975 -45.9% -51.1% 28% 23% -40.5%
≤30d 1063 -40.7% -46.4% 30% 25% -35.2%
≤90d 1063 -40.7% -46.4% 30% 25% -35.2%
all 1063 -40.7% -46.4% 30% 25% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover386.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.4% 25% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -51.5% 19% -41.4%
15% -56.2% 13% -47.0%
20% -60.5% 8% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -93% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,508
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses324 / 739
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1063 / 681
History coverage8d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day386.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1063 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records