Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd3c…95ce politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% $0
other 32% $0
crypto 11% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 5% $0
world 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 19 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage114d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $90 −$2 -3%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 28 $90 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $91 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $91 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $91 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? Mar 22 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $92 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $87 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $90 14h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $90 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $90 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $90 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 27d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 35d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 36d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 39d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 40d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $90 43d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $90 44d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 52d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 52d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 65d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 66d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 68d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 69d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $91 72d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $91 73d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $91 80d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $91 81d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $91 85d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $91 86d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $91 93d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $91 93d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $91 98d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $91 99d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records