Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd3b…3dd4 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$68
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$28
sports 20% +$6
crypto 5% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +21.3% +9.7% 33% 33% +7.1%
≤30d 41 +4.4% -5.5% 32% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 41 +4.4% -5.5% 32% 32% -9.4%
all 41 +4.4% -5.5% 32% 32% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 32% -9.4%
10% -14.5% 29% -18.0%
15% -22.8% 29% -25.9%
20% -30.4% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$12 +42%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$26 +278%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$22 -70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 +$32 +281%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 −$43 -92%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$10 +21%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$14 +152%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +150%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$15 +93%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$7 -49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $111 −$55 -49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 38h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 38h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $43 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.77 · official $33.78 (match) · 81 history records