Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd3a…9993 other 1259 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 193d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,655 (-4%) realized −$3,659 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%781W / 470L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$215
14 days+$278
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1,923
sports 14% −$888
world 1% −$44
crypto 0% −$108
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +28.2% +16.0% 85% 65% +6.4%
≤30d 100 +4.5% -5.5% 63% 54% -8.1%
≤90d 416 -0.0% -9.5% 63% 56% -10.0%
all 1251 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 56% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 56% -12.7%
10% -19.2% 40% -21.1%
15% -27.0% 27% -28.7%
20% -34.2% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$53 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$3,659
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses781 / 470
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1251 / 1259
History coverage193d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 81¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 82¢ 82¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 41¢ 44¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 62¢ 62¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $76 +$5 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $17 +$15 +90%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$4 +11%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $26 +$14 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $86 +$53 +62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 +$6 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $18 +$12 +70%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 26 $24 +$13 +56%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $184 +$10 +5%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $192 +$25 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $74 −$74 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $21 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 +$11 +93%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $17 +$3 +17%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 +$2 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $64 +$72 +112%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 $0 +4%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$13 +226%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $11 +$11 +100%
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 21 $13 +$11 +86%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $213 +$39 +18%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $77 +$9 +12%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $52 +$29 +56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 +$13 +70%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 $0 +2%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $17 +$18 +108%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $85 +$20 +23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$11 +93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$9 +25%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $28 +$13 +45%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $28 +$18 +64%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$4 +12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $24 +$13 +55%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $4 +$36 +832%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $61 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $108 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $45 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $89 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $13 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $30 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 23h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $41 32h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 62¢ $19 33h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $2 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $3 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $80 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $109 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? BUY No 95¢ $56 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? BUY No 95¢ $128 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $57 2d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $1 3d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $9 3d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $2 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $21 3d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $4 3d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $5 3d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $1 3d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $2 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $0 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.83 · official $391.85 (match) · 3500 history records