Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd39…b1aa politics 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$10
other 24% −$5
sports 16% −$4
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 84 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage203d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $545 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $272 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $272 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $272 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $547 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $272 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $274 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $548 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $274 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $539 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $550 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $274 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $274 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $274 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 20 $274 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $274 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $274 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $549 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $274 $0 +0%
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 09 $274 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $261 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $258 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 28 $261 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 27 $270 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Feb 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 23 $272 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Feb 07 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 07 $267 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 05 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 04 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Jan 31 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $272 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $272 13h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $272 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $272 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $272 17d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $272 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $272 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $272 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $272 32d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $272 33d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 35d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 36d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $273 37d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $273 37d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $273 39d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $273 39d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 40d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $273 40d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $272 42d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $272 42d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 46d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 51d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 51d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $274 66d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $274 66d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $274 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $274 68d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $274 70d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $273 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records