Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd39…54e5 politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$2
sports 24% −$2
other 11% $0
crypto 5% −$1
world 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -6.7% -15.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage228d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $79 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $77 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $1 $0 -50%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $77 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $161 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $3 $0 -11%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $83 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 25d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 114d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 130d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 142d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 144d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 147d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 147d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 149d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 150d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $76 151d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $77 151d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $77 152d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $76 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $76 155d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 155d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 157d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $77 158d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $78 160d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $78 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $78 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? BUY No 0¢ $1 163d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $79 163d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $79 164d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $78 165d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $78 169d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 169d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records