Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd36…873b crypto 1068 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,332 (-12%) realized −$2,283 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%414W / 783L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,974
7 days−$2,310
14 days−$2,263
30 days−$3,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$114
crypto 43% −$728
other 2% +$124
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 -60.5% -64.2% 10% 10% -58.4%
≤30d 716 -28.1% -35.0% 30% 29% -38.3%
≤90d 1197 -20.0% -27.6% 35% 34% -27.3%
all 1197 -20.0% -27.6% 35% 34% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 34% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 33% -34.2%
15% -40.8% 32% -40.6%
20% -46.6% 30% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,283
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses414 / 783
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1197 / 1068
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3) Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 31? Jun 18 $0 +$50 +100001%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say the "N word" in November? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$6 +158%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 38m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $51 11h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 2026 BUY 40¢ $51 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $48 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $51 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $30 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $51 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $51 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 50¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 50¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 50¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 50¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 50¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 50¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 30¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 90¢ $153 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.82 (match) · 3500 history records