Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd36…3f97 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,094 (-6%) realized −$1,094 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%31W / 35L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$132
sports 27% −$988
other 7% −$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.2% +8.8% 67% 67% -24.1%
≤30d 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 43% -1.8%
≤90d 30 -26.5% -33.5% 40% 33% -17.7%
all 66 -22.1% -29.5% 47% 42% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 42% -17.5%
10% -36.2% 36% -25.4%
15% -42.4% 30% -32.6%
20% -48.0% 26% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$216 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,094
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses31 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage195d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$27 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 27 $919 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 27 $920 +$486 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 27 $500 −$481 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 27 $187 −$179 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 27 $464 −$58 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 27 $438 +$90 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 27 $510 +$163 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 27 $311 −$300 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $305 −$203 -66%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $983 +$999 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 16 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 06 $26 +$22 +84%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? Apr 18 $1,594 −$1,563 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 18 $400 −$385 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 18 $400 +$1,041 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 18 $300 −$286 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 18 $653 +$602 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 18 $391 +$262 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 21 $342 −$337 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 21 $393 −$99 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 21 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 14 $745 −$734 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 14 $320 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 14 $120 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 14 $200 +$94 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 14 $200 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 14 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 14 $300 +$64 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 14 $110 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 14 $300 +$74 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 14 $456 +$245 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 14 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 14 $460 +$296 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 14 $330 +$130 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 14 $231 +$101 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 14 $181 +$50 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 14 $109 +$72 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 14 $68 +$41 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 16 $66 −$66 -98%
Broncos vs. Chiefs Dec 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $315 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $627 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $883 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $36 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $646 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $661 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $98 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $68 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $852 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $243 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $256 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $187 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $29 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $376 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $411 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $54 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $474 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $412 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records