Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd36…e7d5 politics 32 markets active 4h ago coverage 513d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,085 (+50%) realized +$5,085 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,332
7 days+$5,576
14 days+$5,543
30 days+$5,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$5,005
sports 19% +$128
politics 5% +$58
crypto 2% −$202
tech 1% +$24
culture 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +117.3% +96.6% 100% 100% +92.3%
≤30d 9 +39.6% +26.3% 56% 56% +50.8%
≤90d 9 +39.6% +26.3% 56% 56% +50.8%
all 32 +2.3% -7.5% 41% 41% +35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 41% +35.1%
10% -16.3% 41% +22.1%
15% -24.4% 34% +10.3%
20% -31.8% 31% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -47% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$559 vs −$121 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

513d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,085
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage513d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $305 +$347 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,101 +$1,985 +180%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,032 +$2,315 +114%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 12 $1,517 +$929 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,620 −$33 -2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $561 +$1,055 +188%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $359 −$357 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $50 −$49 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $711 −$700 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $344 +$162 +47%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Oct 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? Oct 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration spee Jan 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Jan 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$80 +320%
Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$112 +448%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inaugurati Jan 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $100 +$178 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1,101 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,032 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,517 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 63¢ $1,586 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $27 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $48 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $137 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $388 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $19 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $261 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $44 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $669 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $27 13d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $597 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $552 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $295 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $17 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $49 23d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes $3 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records