Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd35…17de sports 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,432 (+2%) realized +$3,304 · open +$128
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%102W / 56L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,409per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$947
7 days+$766
14 days+$606
30 days+$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$174
other 3% +$3,779
crypto 0% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +62.7% +47.2% 86% 86% +5.9%
≤30d 23 +26.0% +14.0% 70% 70% +0.5%
≤90d 35 +8.5% -1.8% 60% 60% -22.4%
all 158 +3.1% -6.8% 65% 63% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 63% -7.0%
10% -15.7% 59% -15.9%
15% -23.8% 42% -24.0%
20% -31.3% 26% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,404) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$610 vs −$1,046 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized+$3,304
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses102 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 161
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,409
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 95¢ $490 $618 +$128 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $421 +$136 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $47 +$172 +365%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $92 +$156 +170%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $898 −$215 -24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $632 +$174 +28%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $314 +$317 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $260 +$55 +21%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $154 +$105 +68%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $107 +$47 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $609 −$603 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $82 +$28 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $420 +$161 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $287 +$133 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $187 +$100 +54%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $77 +$27 +36%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $183 −$180 -98%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $99 +$87 +88%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $99 −$98 -98%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $123 +$75 +60%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $91 +$32 +35%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $18 −$18 -99%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 03 $1,442 −$1,430 -99%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,051 +$398 +38%
Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw? May 03 $659 +$399 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $395 +$266 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 02 $16 −$15 -94%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Draw at halftime? May 02 $910 −$900 -99%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 01 $147 −$145 -99%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $61 +$79 +129%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $35 −$35 -98%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $1,013 −$577 -57%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 22 $500 −$496 -99%
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $307 +$193 +63%
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $5,523 −$5,523 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Mar 19 $753 +$1,102 +146%
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $3,803 +$1,365 +36%
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 19 $3,000 +$803 +27%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $3,113 −$2,360 -76%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $2,453 +$660 +27%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $2,050 +$407 +20%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $337 −$241 -71%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $4,000 +$950 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $194 +$143 +74%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $3,454 +$740 +21%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $2,284 +$1,170 +51%
SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $1,520 +$763 +50%
SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $1,200 +$320 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $557 18m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $494 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $421 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $219 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $47 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $247 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $92 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $192 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $92 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $491 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $805 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 SELL 83¢ $806 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 BUY 64¢ $632 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $314 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $315 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $260 26h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $259 26h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $154 26h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $154 26h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $107 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND E BUY 10¢ $109 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY 63¢ $106 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $609 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $110 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 73¢ $82 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $581 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $420 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $420 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $287 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $287 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.73 · official $617.73 (match) · 357 history records