Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd34…2aec world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-28%) realized −$36 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$9
other 25% −$32
politics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.0% -17.7% 25% 17% -38.2%
≤30d 12 -9.0% -17.7% 25% 17% -38.2%
≤90d 12 -9.0% -17.7% 25% 17% -38.2%
all 12 -9.0% -17.7% 25% 17% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 17% -38.2%
10% -25.6% 17% -44.1%
15% -32.8% 17% -49.5%
20% -39.4% 17% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 60¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 57¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $35 −$15 -43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 +$10 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 77¢ $0 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 57¢ $4 30h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $0 32h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $1 32h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 32h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 32h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 32h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 32h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 56¢ $4 32h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $2 32h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 33h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 33h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $3 33h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $3 33h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 33h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $2 33h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 34h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 36¢ $0 35h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.87 · official $8.84 (match) · 69 history records