Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd32…9f19 politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$17
politics 34% −$16
sports 10% +$29
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -1.9% -11.3% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 126 -1.8% -11.1% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage122d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $255 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $288 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $240 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $299 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $284 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $257 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $305 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $270 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $242 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 29 $221 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $309 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 19 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $288 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 3h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 7d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $46 7d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $46 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $47 15d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 16d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 16d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 16d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 18d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 22d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 22d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.98 · official $68.98 (match) · 362 history records