Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd31…b9b5 crypto 1386 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,614 (-20%) realized −$2,574 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%762W / 890L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day49.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,922
7 days−$3,878
14 days−$3,886
30 days−$2,928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$3,409
crypto 31% −$239
sports 17% +$1,172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 761 -38.5% -44.3% 38% 36% -55.5%
≤30d 1246 -26.5% -33.5% 46% 39% -32.3%
≤90d 1652 -21.0% -28.6% 46% 38% -30.2%
all 1652 -21.0% -28.6% 46% 38% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 38% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 26% -36.9%
15% -41.6% 16% -43.0%
20% -47.4% 10% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized−$2,574
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses762 / 890
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1652 / 1386
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day49.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $500 $460 −$40 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$3 -182%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -88%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$2 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -72%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 −$3 -2009%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $604 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $369 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $901 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.56 · official $459.56 (match) · 3500 history records