Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd31…e240 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%40W / 9L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$2
other 19% $0
sports 8% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 82% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses40 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage501d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $19 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dominic LeBlanc be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Feb 20 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 31d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $16 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 63d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 123d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $50 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 183d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $39 183d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $51 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 99¢ $6 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 243d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 362d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $26 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.98 · official $62.98 (match) · 109 history records