Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd30…3098 crypto 1445 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$173 (-1%) realized −$142 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate86%1261W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$402
7 days−$429
14 days−$421
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$181
sports 0% +$11
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -28.7% -35.5% 62% 54% -36.5%
≤30d 754 -4.6% -13.6% 82% 80% -14.0%
≤90d 1474 -2.6% -11.9% 86% 62% -11.6%
all 1474 -2.6% -11.9% 86% 62% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 62% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 4% -20.1%
15% -28.0% 1% -27.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1261 / 213
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1474 / 1445
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $32 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $23 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $19 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $14 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 3500 history records