trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 81¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 57¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Athletics vs. Guardians | Athletics | 5¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Yankees vs. Braves | Yankees | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Tigers | 55¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Giants vs. Blue Jays | Giants | 9¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| White Sox vs. Pirates | Pirates | 5¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Reds vs. Mets | Mets | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Padres vs. Nationals | Nationals | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Orioles vs. Guardians | Guardians | 52¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks | Cardinals | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Tigers vs. Rangers | Tigers | 5¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Astros vs. Mariners | Astros | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Brewers vs. Dodgers | Dodgers | 15¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Athletics vs. Astros | Astros | 55¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Padres vs. Cardinals | Padres | 45¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Orioles vs. Rays | Orioles | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +97% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Jan 08 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 10 | $6 | $0 | -6% |
| Mariners vs. Angels | Jul 25 | $1 | +$1 | +104% |
| Padres vs. Cardinals | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Orioles vs. Guardians | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Athletics vs. Astros | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? | Jul 21 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -19% |
| Brewers vs. Dodgers | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Astros vs. Mariners | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Rockies | Jul 19 | $1 | +$2 | +167% |
| Tigers vs. Rangers | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -31% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -22% |
| Another Israel strike on Yemen in July? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Astronomer Divorce Parlay | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Pump.fun buybacks $40M worth of $PUMP before September? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | +50% |
| Padres vs. Nationals | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Reds vs. Mets | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| White Sox vs. Pirates | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Orioles vs. Rays | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Yankees vs. Braves | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Royals vs. Marlins | Jul 19 | $2 | +$12 | +578% |
| Giants vs. Blue Jays | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Athletics vs. Guardians | Jul 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? | Jul 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? | Jul 16 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? | Jul 12 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Dodgers vs. Giants | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Blue Jays vs. Athletics | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Mets vs. Royals | Jul 12 | $1 | −$1 | -73% |
| Rangers vs. Astros | Jul 12 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Braves vs. Cardinals | Jul 12 | $2 | −$1 | -29% |
| Mariners vs. Tigers | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | -35% |
| Nationals vs. Brewers | Jul 12 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| Guardians vs. White Sox | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Marlins vs. Orioles | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Rockies vs. Reds | Jul 12 | $2 | −$1 | -47% |
| Cubs vs. Yankees | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Rays vs. Red Sox | Jul 12 | $2 | $0 | -20% |
| Mariners vs. Yankees | Jul 11 | $124 | +$1 | +1% |
| Rays vs. Red Sox | Jul 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +51.8% | +37.3% | 67% | 67% | +38.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +51.8% | +37.3% | 67% | 67% | +38.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +51.8% | +37.3% | 67% | 67% | +38.1% |
| all | 94 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 46% | 26% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.1% | 26% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -26.9% | 17% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -33.9% | 13% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -40.4% | 9% | -33.4% |