Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xdd2f…7e70
other · 88 markets active 27d ago
0.0score
+$9,138 +41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$996 · open +$10,134
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,407
Realized−$996
Unrealized+$10,134
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage659d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 31¢ 70¢ $5,401 $12,127 +$6,727 (+125%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $4,873 $8,280 +$3,407 (+70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 16 $932 +$157 +17%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? May 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on May 11 $422 −$241 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 29 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 29 $21 +$476 +2228%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April? Apr 17 $97 −$66 -68%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Apr 17 $1,472 −$599 -41%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31? Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31? Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Apr 07 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" this week? (April 5) Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,013 +$906 +89%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April? Apr 07 $20 −$2 -9%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Apr 07 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter E Apr 06 $9 +$29 +311%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 06 $99 +$42 +43%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 05 $262 +$299 +114%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $394 +$111 +28%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $97 −$85 -88%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Mar 29 $435 −$50 -12%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Mar 27 $1,135 +$31 +3%
Will Trump say "Tiger" this week? (March 29) Mar 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Chuck Norris" this week? (March 29) Mar 26 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 29) Mar 25 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) Mar 25 $99 +$9 +9%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (March 29) Mar 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90 Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? Mar 24 $102 +$25 +25%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $50 +$54 +107%
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rashid Shaheed win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Mar 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl? Mar 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Big Game: 'Drake ‘Tom Brady’ Maye' Parlay Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio Mar 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Big Game: Octopus? Mar 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Mar 22 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever? Mar 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Mar 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Jeff Bezos attend Super Bowl LX? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Mar 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Mar 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Mar 22 $289 −$289 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 58% +$10,099
other 13% −$1,368
politics 6% −$364
economics 6% +$111
crypto 6% −$677
world 5% +$992
sports 3% +$438
culture 2% −$60
finance 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,089 27d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 58¢ $181 32d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 8¢ $181 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $497 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 44d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $52 44d
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 55d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 48¢ $873 55d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 82¢ $99 64d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 82¢ $385 64d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 80¢ $988 64d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 85¢ $247 65d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 84¢ $504 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 66¢ $1,854 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 42¢ $215 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 34¢ $467 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 34¢ $301 65d
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April? SELL No 63¢ $18 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 18¢ $65 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 65d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 65d
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April? BUY No 69¢ $20 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -60.5% -64.3% 33% 33% +2.7%
≤90d 66 -13.6% -21.8% 26% 21% -21.8%
all 86 +2.1% -7.6% 31% 28% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 28% -17.5%
10% -16.4% 24% -25.4%
15% -24.5% 21% -32.6%
20% -31.9% 16% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,407.30 · official $20,407.30 (match) · 279 history records