Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd2e…aab7 crypto 995 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,239 (-22%) realized −$3,222 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%308W / 686L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$412
7 days−$1,170
14 days−$1,764
30 days−$3,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,928
other 1% −$30
sports 0% −$41
politics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -20.1% -27.7% 34% 33% -43.9%
≤30d 789 -22.4% -29.8% 34% 33% -31.2%
≤90d 994 -27.6% -34.5% 31% 29% -34.3%
all 994 -27.6% -34.5% 31% 29% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.5% 29% -34.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 28% -40.6%
15% -46.5% 27% -46.3%
20% -51.7% 25% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3,222
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses308 / 686
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)994 / 995
History coverage45d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 994 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$16 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$10 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$20 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$10 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$26 +245%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$20 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$20 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$26 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $26 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $32 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $41 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $17 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.95 · official $32.95 (match) · 2723 history records