Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd2e…bcfc crypto 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$168 (-9%) realized −$155 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%50W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$138
14 days−$138
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$2
other 22% −$171
world 11% −$79
sports 8% +$53
culture 0% −$9
finance 0% −$7
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -23.5% -30.8% 32% 26% -20.0%
≤30d 111 -23.5% -30.8% 32% 26% -20.0%
≤90d 122 -27.1% -34.1% 30% 25% -20.7%
all 186 -26.9% -33.8% 27% 23% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 23% -21.1%
10% -40.2% 21% -28.7%
15% -46.0% 19% -35.6%
20% -51.3% 17% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses50 / 136
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions38
Markets (closed)186 / 224
History coverage162d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$3 +9%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$8 -18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $56 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$3 +30%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$2 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 29m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $27 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 40m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 41m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 43m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 43m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 45m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 45m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 45m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.29 · official $267.61 (match) · 653 history records