Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd2b…3d48 crypto 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$201 (+1%) realized +$95 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%78W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$48
other 1% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 64 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 2% -9.4%
all 78 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$667
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses78 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)78 / 82
History coverage119d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $373 $373 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 54¢ 79¢ $116 $168 +$52 (+45%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 76¢ $65 $119 +$54 (+82%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $372 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $372 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $371 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $371 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $370 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $370 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $369 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $368 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $368 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $367 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $367 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $366 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $366 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $366 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $365 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $365 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $365 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $364 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $364 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $362 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $362 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $361 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $361 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $253 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $359 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $351 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $308 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $348 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $345 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $344 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $247 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $246 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $373 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $372 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $372 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $371 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $371 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $370 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $370 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $369 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $4 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $369 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $368 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $368 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $367 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $367 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $366 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $366 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $366 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $365 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $365 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $365 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $364 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $364 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $363 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $362 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $362 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $361 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $361 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $150 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $667.02 · official $667.02 (match) · 178 history records