Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd29…2908 politics 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 36% −$12
sports 6% −$26
tech 6% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 141 -2.6% -11.9% 5% 4% -9.8%
all 151 -2.4% -11.7% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 141
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage114d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $372 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $308 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $319 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $128 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $300 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $152 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $128 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $122 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $422 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $127 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $137 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $365 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $305 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $263 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $296 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $131 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 13h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 13h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 18h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 28h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 41h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $169 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $169 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 28d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $135 29d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $135 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 428 history records