Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd27…4721 sports 595 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,183 (+13%) realized +$3,176 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%287W / 305L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$194
14 days−$316
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$3,310
other 10% −$272
world 0% −$74
crypto 0% +$12
weather 0% −$12
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.3% -22.5% 43% 36% -24.4%
≤30d 62 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 42% -19.2%
≤90d 118 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 42% -19.5%
all 592 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 47% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% +2.9%
10% -20.1% 45% -6.9%
15% -27.8% 36% -15.9%
20% -34.9% 33% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3,176
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses287 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)592 / 595
History coverage225d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 592 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 81¢ 98¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 29 $22 +$10 +46%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $16 −$16 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $16 $0 -2%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $22 −$5 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $52 −$52 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $73 −$20 -28%
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? Jun 27 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $54 +$5 +8%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $77 +$19 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $77 +$1 +1%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $42 +$35 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 +$10 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $80 −$76 -95%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $27 −$26 -94%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $59 −$39 -67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 +$27 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 24 $43 −$41 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $19 +$15 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$14 +172%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $150 +$68 +46%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $304 +$56 +18%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $64 −$47 -74%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$69 +450%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$17 +109%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$44 -86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$26 +51%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$14 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$14 -48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$10 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $31 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $31 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 68¢ $22 6h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $16 28h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) SELL T1 86¢ $16 28h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 87¢ $16 29h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $16 29h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $22 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $52 33h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 51¢ $52 33h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $73 39h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 18¢ $13 39h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 18¢ $13 39h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 19¢ $10 39h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 20¢ $12 39h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 22¢ $0 39h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 20¢ $0 39h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 22¢ $0 40h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 22¢ $2 40h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 22¢ $6 40h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 22¢ $5 40h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL No 23¢ $1 41h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 28¢ $28 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 64¢ $46 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $28 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $96 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $77 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.82 · official $37.79 (match) · 1535 history records