Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd23…387e sports 551 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,647 (+12%) realized +$13,910 · open +$737
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%361W / 187L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$1,721est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$305
7 days+$421
14 days+$1,432
30 days+$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$8,693
other 13% +$293
world 0% +$617
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +68.7% +52.6% 86% 71% +2.2%
≤30d 130 -15.2% -23.2% 49% 33% -7.4%
≤90d 548 +8.8% -1.6% 66% 41% -2.9%
all 548 +8.8% -1.6% 66% 41% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 41% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 32% -12.2%
15% -19.6% 28% -20.7%
20% -27.5% 23% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$113 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,133
Realized+$13,910
Unrealized+$737
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses361 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,721
Open positions3
Markets (closed)548 / 551
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$225
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Barcelona vs. Valencia Valencia 100¢ $0 $1,110 +$1,110 (+0%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Lilmix 46¢ $376 $0 −$375 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$14 +150%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $819 +$169 +21%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $164 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $834 −$677 -81%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $347 +$599 +172%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$25 +165%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $78 +$118 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $357 −$350 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $519 +$374 +72%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 21 $116 +$12 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $119 +$115 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +122%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $500 +$250 +50%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $306 +$33 +11%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $368 −$366 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $427 −$420 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $395 −$390 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $670 +$330 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $457 +$520 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $985 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $620 +$41 +7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $27 −$7 -27%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $556 +$180 +32%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $565 +$22 +4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $225 −$221 -98%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $83 −$22 -26%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $399 +$368 +92%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 10 $518 +$59 +11%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $453 +$386 +85%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $414 +$133 +32%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $199 +$39 +20%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $346 −$80 -23%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $459 +$151 +33%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $145 −$113 -78%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $20 +$4 +19%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 08 $387 +$113 +29%
Spread: Bahcesehir Koleji (-4.5) Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $39 +$17 +43%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA? Jun 06 $84 −$30 -36%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $77 +$20 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,317 +$7 +0%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $62 −$8 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 58¢ $553 1h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 58¢ $6 1h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 58¢ $6 1h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 58¢ $6 1h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 58¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 54¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 54¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 54¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 54¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 54¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 46¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 46¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 46¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 46¢ $281 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 54¢ $219 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 59¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,132.73 · official $1,132.73 (match) · 3500 history records