Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd23…e31f sports 901 markets active 3h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,776 (+2%) realized +$6,578 · open +$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%519W / 376L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$661est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,200
7 days−$796
14 days−$785
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$6,494
other 2% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -8.5% -17.2% 71% 58% -17.8%
≤30d 91 -9.5% -18.1% 59% 55% -11.8%
≤90d 260 -4.9% -13.9% 58% 55% -26.9%
all 895 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 55% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 55% -7.7%
10% -17.3% 48% -16.6%
15% -25.3% 41% -24.6%
20% -32.6% 35% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$326 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$4,594
Realized+$6,578
Unrealized+$198
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses519 / 376
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$661
Open positions6
Markets (closed)895 / 901
History coverage161d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 895 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ 69¢ $2,972 $3,037 +$65 (+2%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 60¢ $552 $576 +$24 (+4%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Under 43¢ 54¢ $310 $385 +$76 (+24%)
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Dallas Wings 74¢ 78¢ $357 $379 +$22 (+6%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 81¢ 83¢ $134 $137 +$3 (+2%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5) Dallas Wings 44¢ 50¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $990 +$374 +38%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $92 +$8 +9%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$49 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $1,659 −$1,627 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $23 +$30 +129%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $198 +$34 +17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $110 +$31 +28%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $243 −$238 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 +$76 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $130 +$49 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $279 +$52 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $58 +$14 +24%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $856 +$254 +30%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $486 +$85 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $207 +$13 +6%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $564 +$112 +20%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 14 $221 +$24 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $86 +$12 +14%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $1,103 +$204 +18%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $104 +$28 +27%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 14 $134 +$13 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 14 $297 +$36 +12%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $60 +$31 +52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $193 +$13 +7%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $57 +$29 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $83 +$25 +31%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $487 +$184 +38%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 12 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $125 +$54 +44%
Spread: Hurricanes (-3.5) Jun 12 $481 +$119 +25%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $192 +$152 +79%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 11 $473 +$229 +48%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $246 −$246 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $351 −$99 -28%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 11 $105 +$30 +29%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $43 +$22 +50%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $212 +$116 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $73 −$73 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 09 $107 −$107 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $3,001 2h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 74¢ $64 4h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 74¢ $296 4h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5) BUY Dallas Wings 44¢ $72 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $559 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 72¢ $495 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 72¢ $495 8h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Athletics 57¢ $50 9h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 34¢ $1,659 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $315 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $23 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $134 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $198 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 43¢ $243 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 53¢ $73 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $110 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 46¢ $44 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $92 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $91 3d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 61¢ $122 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 72¢ $130 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $58 5d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 76¢ $765 5d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 82¢ $90 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $71 6d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $27 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 85¢ $189 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 84¢ $151 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Under 83¢ $472 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Under 82¢ $93 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,593.60 · official $4,589.21 (match) · 2337 history records