Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd22…2013 weather 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$565 (+13%) realized +$597 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%46W / 51L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days−$111
14 days+$309
30 days+$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$365
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +39.1% +25.8% 41% 41% -16.0%
≤30d 97 +26.3% +14.2% 47% 47% +0.8%
≤90d 97 +26.3% +14.2% 47% 47% +0.8%
all 97 +26.3% +14.2% 47% 47% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 47% +0.8%
10% +3.3% 45% -8.8%
15% -6.7% 43% -17.6%
20% -15.8% 38% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$24 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$861
Realized+$597
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses46 / 51
Open positions8
Markets (closed)97 / 105
History coverage23d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $227 $214 −$13 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 44¢ 40¢ $160 $148 −$12 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 43¢ 34¢ $180 $140 −$41 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 78¢ 84¢ $92 $101 +$8 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 60¢ 62¢ $92 $97 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 73¢ 78¢ $74 $79 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $33 $42 +$8 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 72¢ 91¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $23 +$17 +73%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $38 +$61 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $49 +$170 +349%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $258 +$111 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +65%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $12 +$10 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$41 +2341%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $56 +$21 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$33 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $26 +$57 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$12 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $185 −$134 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $36 +$52 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $23 +$14 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $48 −$10 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $123 +$44 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 10 $12 +$28 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $24 −$7 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 8? Jun 09 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $23 +$12 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $12 +$16 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? Jun 08 $62 −$7 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 41¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 32¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 22¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 34¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 33¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 20¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 26¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 42¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 34¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $40 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $23 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $23 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $24 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.85 · official $853.30 (match) · 437 history records