Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xdd22…9ef1
world · 41 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$297,164 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$333,687 · open −$54,107
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$300,194
Realized+$333,687
Unrealized−$54,107
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions16
Markets (closed)31 / 41
History coverage77d
Avg bet$102,600
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 16 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days−$2,873
14 days−$3,993
30 days−$4,336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $85,000 $143,905 +$58,905 (+69%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $102,166 $105,300 +$3,134 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $85,000 $26,095 −$58,905 (-69%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 98¢ $19,628 $22,202 +$2,574 (+13%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 86¢ 98¢ $867 $984 +$117 (+13%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 86¢ $381 $717 +$336 (+88%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 10¢ 4¢ $1,111 $417 −$694 (-62%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 34¢ $156 $172 +$16 (+10%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $180 $163 −$17 (-9%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $139 $68 −$71 (-51%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $192 $65 −$127 (-66%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $297 $51 −$246 (-83%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes 68¢ 22¢ $126 $41 −$85 (-68%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+90%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-59%)
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026? Yes 56¢ 1¢ $88 $2 −$86 (-98%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $49 $1 −$47 (-97%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? No 72¢ 0¢ $4,712 $0 −$4,712 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $74,182 +$224 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $133 −$27 -20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,194 +$420 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29,333 +$1,222 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $4,764 −$4,712 -99%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $100,000 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,024 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $550,690 +$783 +0%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 Jun 01 $47 −$47 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $641 −$641 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 01 $307 −$307 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 01 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $410,000 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $120,879 +$121 +0%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $66,602 +$64 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $66,602 +$64 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $66,602 +$64 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $635,555 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $8,154 −$1,777 -22%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 20 $1,212 +$1,707 +141%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $567 −$395 -70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12,531 +$127 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $288,840 +$1,160 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $455,555 +$180,000 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $189,620 +$380 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $578,260 +$1,450 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 07 $970 +$28 +3%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $182 +$2,732 +1505%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $198,700 +$152,152 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% +$6,176
politics 30% +$123,039
other 23% +$150,257
crypto 13% +$777
sports 0% −$423
tech 0% −$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 33h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $83 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $130 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $139 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $867 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $180 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $184 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $688 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $2,070 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3,458 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.3% -26.1% 43% 14% -10.8%
≤30d 22 -26.3% -33.3% 41% 9% -9.7%
≤90d 31 +30.6% +18.1% 55% 16% -1.7%
all 31 +30.6% +18.1% 55% 16% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.1% 16% -1.7%
10% +6.8% 16% -11.1%
15% ← realistic here -3.5% 13% -19.7%
20% -12.9% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300,194.05 · official $300,194.10 (match) · 3500 history records