Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd21…888b world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$15
other 11% +$2
finance 8% +$9
politics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 34 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 36 -0.1% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.6%
all 85 -1.9% -11.2% 40% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage465d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $221 −$6 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $145 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $142 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $149 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $234 −$3 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $320 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $289 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $177 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $176 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $102 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $24 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $590 +$9 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $169 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $14 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $166 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $166 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $123 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $83 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $165 −$10 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $169 +$3 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $154 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $63 +$5 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $2,091 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 24 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Solana dip to $140 in June? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on May 23? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 14 $4 −$1 -18%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Lucknow Super Giants win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 10 $1 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $111 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $162 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $159 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 31h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $144 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $131 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $81 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $61 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $142 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $142 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $142 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $66 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $76 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $65 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $77 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $53 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $60 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $150 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $149 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $17 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $85 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.68 · official $109.37 (match) · 307 history records