Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd1f…3b4d sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$279 (-5%) realized −$283 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$318
7 days−$334
14 days−$553
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$856
other 40% +$544
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.5% -34.4% 25% 0% -42.2%
≤30d 28 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 36% -11.3%
≤90d 46 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 37% -14.9%
all 46 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 37% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 37% -14.9%
10% -37.7% 30% -23.0%
15% -43.8% 17% -30.5%
20% -49.3% 11% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$53 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage51d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Over 56¢ 57¢ $199 $203 +$4 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 70¢ 70¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $282 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $323 −$318 -98%
Spread: Syria (-2.5) Jun 12 $160 −$8 -5%
Spread: Syria (-1.5) Jun 12 $166 −$9 -5%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $220 −$70 -32%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $150 −$149 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Chicago Stars FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $469 +$62 +13%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $632 +$153 +24%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will GAIS win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$31 -99%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $42 −$42 -99%
Besiktas vs. Galatasaray May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $168 +$176 +105%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $23 +$31 +134%
Basquet Club Andorra vs. Barcelona May 28 $24 −$24 -98%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club ABB: O/U 2.5 May 28 $4 −$3 -93%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $140 +$5 +3%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $142 −$139 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 9.5 Total C May 23 $47 +$55 +119%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $803 +$80 +10%
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Wuhan San Zhen FC leading at halftime? May 20 $30 +$7 +24%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC leading at halftime? May 20 $285 +$124 +43%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $40 +$14 +35%
Alba Berlin vs. SC RASTA Vechta May 19 $152 +$56 +37%
Qingdao Xihaian FC leading at halftime? May 19 $262 +$84 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 18 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $262 −$7 -3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $18 −$17 -98%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $27 +$6 +21%
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline May 03 $6 −$6 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? May 03 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Rotherham United FC (-2.5) May 02 $80 +$2 +2%
Enisey Krasnoyarsk vs. CSKA Moscow May 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $9 +$1 +10%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $50 +$5 +11%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $10 +$4 +38%
Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale vs. USL Dunkerque end in a draw? Apr 28 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $151 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $202 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 56¢ $282 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $282 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $323 23h
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $73 9d
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $147 9d
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $57 9d
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $92 9d
Spread: Syria (-2.5) BUY Bahrain 52¢ $57 9d
Spread: Syria (-2.5) BUY Bahrain 52¢ $83 9d
Spread: Syria (-2.5) BUY Bahrain 51¢ $20 9d
Spread: Syria (-1.5) BUY Bahrain 52¢ $166 9d
Will Chicago Stars FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 88¢ $469 17d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $10 18d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 80¢ $632 18d
Will GAIS win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 53¢ $31 18d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? BUY No 75¢ $42 18d
Besiktas vs. Galatasaray BUY Galatasaray 28¢ $38 18d
Basquet Club Andorra vs. Barcelona BUY Basquet Club Andorra 25¢ $24 20d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics BUY Los Angeles Sparks 42¢ $23 20d
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club ABB: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $0 20d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions SELL Zhejiang Lions 39¢ $22 20d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions SELL Zhejiang Lions 39¢ $80 20d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions SELL Zhejiang Lions 39¢ $43 20d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 48¢ $108 20d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 37¢ $140 20d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 48¢ $59 20d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 28¢ $142 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.52 · official $352.55 (match) · 91 history records