Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd1f…59be world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 22% −$6
politics 16% $0
sports 12% −$2
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 28 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 66 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.6%
all 69 -2.7% -12.0% 35% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage519d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $71 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $30 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $78 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $66 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $89 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $71 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $33 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $33 8h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.18 · official $30.06 (match) · 285 history records