Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd1d…4fe9 crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,609 (-21%) realized −$2,742 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%40W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$460
14 days−$460
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$2,100
other 23% +$211
politics 18% −$349
sports 15% −$315
finance 5% −$190
economics 2% +$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -52.5% -57.0% 4% 4% -48.6%
≤30d 30 -36.5% -42.6% 13% 13% -27.9%
≤90d 61 -26.9% -33.9% 25% 21% -32.7%
all 135 -22.8% -30.2% 30% 27% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 27% -34.0%
10% -36.8% 25% -40.3%
15% -42.9% 22% -46.0%
20% -48.5% 17% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$50 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,280
Realized−$2,742
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses40 / 95
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions13
Markets (closed)135 / 152
History coverage145d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $374 $433 +$59 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $186 $225 +$39 (+21%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 20¢ $156 $185 +$29 (+19%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 44¢ $94 $104 +$10 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $49 $60 +$11 (+22%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 60¢ $62 $57 −$5 (-8%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 20¢ $64 $56 −$7 (-12%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 62¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+18%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$11 -38%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $42 −$14 -33%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $173 −$27 -16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $176 −$17 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $70 −$39 -56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 14 $51 −$8 -15%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $45 −$4 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $44 −$8 -17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$13 -37%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -29%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $99 +$190 +193%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 27 $43 −$15 -36%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 21 $45 +$23 +51%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 18 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 17 $25 −$2 -7%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $20 +$30 +145%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? May 17 $73 −$73 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June? May 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 17 $8 +$11 +131%
Will Dooho Choi win by KO or TKO? May 17 $20 +$52 +252%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? May 11 $110 −$9 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 08 $131 +$46 +35%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 08 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 04 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 01 $170 −$17 -10%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June? Apr 27 $70 +$9 +13%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $11 −$6 -50%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $20 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $38 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $18 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 25¢ $28 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 22¢ $10 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $146 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $10 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 7h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $53 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $159 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $31 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 20¢ $31 26h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 67¢ $29 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $40 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $30 26h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $43 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 31¢ $43 2d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 14¢ $20 2d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 22¢ $20 2d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 26¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 42¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $42 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 31¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,279.73 · official $1,279.73 (match) · 740 history records