Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd1c…e2d3 sports 1341 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,193 (+1%) realized +$4,199 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate84%1127W / 210L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$1,571
sports 31% +$60
other 11% +$124
finance 2% +$21
culture 1% +$4
world 0% +$3
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.9% -13.1% 82% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 305 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 21% -9.2%
≤90d 1196 +0.0% -9.5% 85% 21% -9.1%
all 1337 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 21% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 10% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 5% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$4,199
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1127 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1337 / 1341
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$314
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? No 91¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,201 +$22 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,101 +$23 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,331 +$4 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,331 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,002 +$20 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $210 −$33 -16%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,002 +$30 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 −$6 -55%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$16 +15%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$6 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,000 +$6 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$32 -31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +19%
Raphinha: 5+ shots Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4,373 +$4 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,101 +$25 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $110 +$3 +2%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $100 2h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 91¢ $10 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $100 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $4,331 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $4,231 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 91¢ $63 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $100 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $100 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 95¢ $10 31h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 97¢ $10 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 57¢ $64 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $100 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1,901 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 44¢ $5 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $10 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $1 36h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $96 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.36 · official $157.36 (match) · 3500 history records