Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd1b…75d8 politics 769 markets active 0h ago coverage 349d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 349d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,323 (-7%) realized −$5,309 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%416W / 352L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 349d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$702
crypto 17% −$406
world 14% +$1,324
other 10% −$2,975
culture 3% +$1,031
economics 2% −$139
tech 2% −$608
sports 1% +$27
finance 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -6.3% -15.2% 69% 56% -9.9%
≤30d 45 -24.7% -31.9% 53% 44% -52.3%
≤90d 284 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 47% -19.6%
all 768 -2.9% -12.2% 54% 47% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 47% -12.4%
10% -20.6% 36% -20.8%
15% -28.3% 25% -28.4%
20% -35.3% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$61 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$5,309
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses416 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)768 / 769
History coverage349d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $31 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $71 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 05 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 05 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 03 $40 −$31 -78%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $62 +$8 +12%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $583 −$583 -100%
Will Trump say "My father" during events with Brazilian president? May 10 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during events with Brazilian president May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.16 · official $16.16 (match) · 3500 history records