Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd1b…ff31 politics 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,503 (+41%) realized +$6,262 · open +$241
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate44%89W / 112L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$39
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% +$6,578
other 21% −$141
weather 5% +$29
world 2% +$9
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -28.2% -35.1% 17% 17% -40.5%
≤30d 90 -5.6% -14.6% 32% 21% -0.9%
≤90d 167 +20.5% +9.0% 40% 29% +26.3%
all 201 +20.6% +9.1% 44% 30% +27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 30% +27.4%
10% -1.4% 27% +15.2%
15% -10.9% 22% +4.1%
20% -19.6% 21% -6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$29 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$732
Realized+$6,262
Unrealized+$241
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses89 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)201 / 206
History coverage127d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026? Yes 46¢ 81¢ $313 $545 +$233 (+74%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $127 $136 +$9 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026? No 25¢ 88¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+252%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$13 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $16 −$4 -22%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $33 +$67 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$17 +221%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$3 -28%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$50 +200%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $673 +$27 +4%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $883 +$64 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -96%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $90 −$87 -97%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$84 +1748%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $141 +$31 +22%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $65 −$64 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $28 +$16 +56%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? Jun 01 $7 +$6 +74%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May? Jun 01 $79 +$6 +8%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $39 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 31 $27 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12? May 31 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 16? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26? May 31 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 22? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 6? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14? May 31 $25 −$15 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? May 31 $19 −$4 -22%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? May 31 $56 −$45 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 77¢ $116 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $59 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 25¢ $1 13h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $4 17h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $5 17h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $26 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 44¢ $62 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $28 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $0 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $732.08 · official $732.08 (match) · 1728 history records