Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd18…a0d4 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate77%59W / 18L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
culture 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.8% -7.0% 94% 29% -9.3%
≤30d 37 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 27% -9.4%
≤90d 43 -0.9% -10.4% 91% 23% -9.4%
all 77 +2.1% -7.6% 77% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 18% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 10% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses59 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)77 / 82
History coverage138d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 14 $234 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 10? May 27 $427 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 5? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $427 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $427 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 24 $425 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 16-22? Mar 22 $401 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $423 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 06 $400 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 06 $35 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 06 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 27 $840 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Feb 21 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 96¢ $1 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $180 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.12 · official $6.12 (match) · 218 history records