Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd15…4a07 other 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,388 (+15%) realized +$9,129 · open −$741
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 100L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$282est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$8,901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,705
7 days+$3,547
14 days+$2,499
30 days+$3,867
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$17,608
sports 24% −$4,147
politics 16% −$4,534
crypto 3% +$291
world 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +94.1% +75.6% 40% 40% +108.9%
≤30d 33 +8.1% -2.2% 24% 24% +26.2%
≤90d 94 +0.8% -8.8% 19% 19% +38.7%
all 124 -9.9% -18.5% 19% 19% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 19% +10.8%
10% -26.3% 19% +0.2%
15% -33.4% 18% -9.5%
20% -39.9% 18% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,631 vs −$292 · ×5.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$8,901
Realized+$9,129
Unrealized−$741
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$282
Open positions22
Markets (closed)124 / 146
History coverage151d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,080 $1,470 +$390 (+36%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,236 $1,343 +$106 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $498 $1,215 +$717 (+144%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $1,013 $995 −$18 (-2%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,235 $892 −$342 (-28%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $605 $612 +$7 (+1%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $529 $395 −$134 (-25%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $300 $289 −$11 (-4%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 36¢ 36¢ $258 $257 −$1 (-0%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $203 $221 +$18 (+9%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $340 $210 −$130 (-38%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $172 $201 +$29 (+17%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $206 $190 −$16 (-8%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $166 $171 +$5 (+3%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 38¢ 42¢ $129 $141 +$12 (+9%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $109 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $97 $89 −$8 (-8%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 30¢ 31¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1,383 $13 −$1,370 (-99%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 38¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $47 +$265 +562%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $327 +$2,071 +633%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $311 −$310 -100%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $711 +$1,735 +244%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $108 −$105 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $323 −$315 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $546 +$554 +101%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $124 −$121 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $176 −$171 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $400 −$393 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $286 −$280 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $319 −$316 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $96 +$704 +733%
Will Morocco finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $312 −$312 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $269 −$265 -99%
Will Japan finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $292 +$308 +105%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $180 −$176 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $285 −$280 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $600 −$598 -100%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $693 −$680 -98%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 02 $396 −$60 -15%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1,595 +$3,075 +193%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $210 −$210 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $477 +$521 +109%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $586 +$891 +152%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,121 −$305 -27%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $2,089 +$1,857 +89%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 26 $23 −$23 -100%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $191 −$190 -99%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $33 −$32 -97%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark May 26 $1,016 −$516 -51%
World Championships: Hungary vs. Latvia May 26 $916 −$916 -100%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovakia May 26 $290 −$217 -75%
World Championships: Germany vs. Great Britain May 25 $55 −$54 -100%
World Championships: USA vs. Hungary May 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 25m
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $38 1h
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $29 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $313 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $350 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $105 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $455 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $514 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $514 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $370 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $536 1h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 11h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 11h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 12h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 14h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 16h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 16h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 18h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 20h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $198 22h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 22h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,900.95 · official $8,816.73 (match) · 2468 history records