Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

DD 0xdd14…f326 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$20 (+8%) realized +$42 · open −$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-4.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+5.7%	-4.3%	67%	67%	+0.6%
≤30d	3	+5.7%	-4.3%	67%	67%	+0.6%
≤90d	3	+5.7%	-4.3%	67%	67%	+0.6%
all	3	+5.7%	-4.3%	67%	67%	+0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.3%	67%	+0.6%
10%	-13.5%	67%	-9.0%
15%	-21.8%	67%	-17.8%
20%	-29.5%	33%	-25.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$50 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.38 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized+$42

Unrealized−$22

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	40¢	30¢	$85	$62	−$22 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$52	+$35	+67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$69	+$34	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$86	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$86	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$52	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$69	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.46 · official $64.58 · 6 history records