Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DD 0xdd10…7544 weather 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$908 (+7%) realized +$773 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate68%63W / 29L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$419
7 days+$827
14 days+$607
30 days+$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$928
world 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$3
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.9% -10.4% 54% 43% +2.2%
≤30d 65 -9.6% -18.2% 62% 38% -3.9%
≤90d 92 -7.4% -16.3% 68% 36% -3.9%
all 92 -7.4% -16.3% 68% 36% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 36% -3.9%
10% -24.3% 17% -13.1%
15% -31.6% 10% -21.5%
20% -38.3% 7% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$65 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$773
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses63 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)92 / 100
History coverage60d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 47¢ 94¢ $160 $317 +$157 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $153 $171 +$18 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $43 $54 +$10 (+23%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $855 +$116 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $202 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 17 $93 −$56 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $402 −$333 -83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $68 −$66 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $370 +$296 +80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $594 +$159 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $112 −$101 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$11 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $162 +$49 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 −$16 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $548 +$320 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 +$300 +576%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $305 +$383 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 +$51 +50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $202 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $250 +$127 +51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $335 +$43 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $268 +$119 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $639 −$122 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $104 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$67 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $569 +$79 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on May 4? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 09 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $489 +$46 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $301 −$232 -77%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $154 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 68¢ $152 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $219 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $503 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $70 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $43 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.79 · official $603.81 (match) · 458 history records