Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DD 0xdd0f…f154 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$70 (+14%) realized −$38 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +108% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$272
weather 16% −$84
sports 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+88.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +108.2% +88.4% 50% 50% +28.9%
≤30d 4 +108.2% +88.4% 50% 50% +28.9%
≤90d 4 +108.2% +88.4% 50% 50% +28.9%
all 4 +108.2% +88.4% 50% 50% +28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +88.4% 50% +28.9%
10% +70.4% 50% +16.6%
15% +53.9% 50% +5.3%
20% +38.8% 50% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +108% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$49 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 62¢ 89¢ $308 $442 +$134 (+44%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 11¢ $43 $16 −$27 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$29 +83%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$135 +550%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 61¢ $61 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $125 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $125 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 10¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 50¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $63 21h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 54¢ $35 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.53 · official $458.53 (match) · 15 history records