Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xdd0f…ac4d world 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$647 (+3%) realized +$1,292 · open −$645
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%47W / 40L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$353
14 days−$344
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$417
politics 29% −$658
finance 6% −$90
tech 4% +$154
crypto 4% +$177
other 3% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 22% -19.3%
≤30d 45 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 24% -11.9%
≤90d 73 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 27% -6.8%
all 87 +38.5% +25.3% 54% 33% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 33% -5.9%
10% +13.3% 21% -14.9%
15% +2.4% 13% -23.1%
20% -7.7% 9% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +79% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$37 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$2,782
Realized+$1,292
Unrealized−$645
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses47 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)87 / 94
History coverage156d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $1,280 $1,936 +$656 (+51%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $1,280 $623 −$657 (-51%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 88¢ 96¢ $99 $108 +$9 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $77 $79 +$3 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 20¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 54¢ 55¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $539 −$65 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $275 −$108 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $147 +$65 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $251 +$127 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $356 −$128 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $410 −$36 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $411 −$11 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $52 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $531 −$108 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $74 −$33 -44%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $52 +$9 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $430 −$16 -4%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $71 +$5 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $43 +$8 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $50 +$6 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $738 −$45 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $41 +$4 +9%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,002 +$59 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $500 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,200 +$50 +4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 21 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 21 $256 +$32 +12%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,341 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 16 $68 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $244 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 54¢ $1 7m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 48¢ $2 10m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $3 12m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 54¢ $0 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 54¢ $3 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 46¢ $0 18m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 27m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 38m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 47m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 54m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 54m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 55m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 55m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 58m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 59m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 59m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 54¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 20¢ $21 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,782.02 · official $2,782.27 (match) · 626 history records