Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd0d…c83a other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$868 (-20%) realized −$868 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$1,230
14 days−$921
30 days−$921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$739
other 45% −$178
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -52.8% -57.3% 21% 18% -56.4%
≤30d 49 -20.9% -28.4% 31% 29% -32.8%
≤90d 49 -20.9% -28.4% 31% 29% -32.8%
all 54 -18.1% -25.9% 33% 31% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 31% -28.7%
10% -33.0% 26% -35.5%
15% -39.5% 24% -41.7%
20% -45.4% 20% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$53 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage236d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $32 −$1 -3%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $101 +$84 +83%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $41 +$19 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$26 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $369 +$74 +20%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 20 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $123 −$123 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$28 -91%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$45 +89%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$55 +550%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $46 −$25 -54%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $108 +$44 +40%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $152 +$90 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 −$24 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $152 −$6 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$31 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $221 +$33 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 +$34 +123%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$91 +442%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $17 +$15 +88%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $223 −$223 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 54m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 35h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 5¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $31 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $30 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $31 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $96 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 11¢ $10 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 19¢ $21 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $16 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 48¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.86 · official $19.86 (match) · 163 history records