trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 89¢ | $19 | $20 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 72¢ | 60¢ | $12 | $10 | −$2 (-17%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $8 | $7 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 93¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | Jun 11 | $7 | +$11 | +156% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 09 | $22 | −$3 | -12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +72.3% | +55.9% | 50% | 50% | +18.4% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +72.3% | +55.9% | 50% | 50% | +18.4% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +72.3% | +55.9% | 50% | 50% | +18.4% |
| all | 2 | +72.3% | +55.9% | 50% | 50% | +18.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +55.9% | 50% | +18.4% |
| 10% | +41.0% | 50% | +7.0% |
| 15% | +27.3% | 50% | -3.3% |
| 20% | +14.9% | 50% | -12.8% |