Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcfe…a481 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$177 (+4%) realized +$177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1,098
other 30% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 38% -32.5%
≤30d 16 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 38% -32.5%
≤90d 16 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 38% -32.5%
all 16 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 38% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 38% -32.5%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 31% -38.9%
15% -11.0% 31% -44.8%
20% -19.8% 31% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$350 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $706 −$673 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$240 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$94 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $186 +$318 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $106 +$406 +384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 −$120 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $293 +$28 +10%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $340 +$641 +188%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $513 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $480 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $226 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1,025 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $311 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $345 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $512 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $122 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $293 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $340 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records