Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DC 0xdcfd…17b4 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$283 (+163%) realized +$286 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +211% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +159% what you keep after slip

Net edge+159%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+181.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+210.7%	+181.1%	100%	100%	+184.5%
≤30d	3	+210.7%	+181.1%	100%	100%	+184.5%
≤90d	3	+210.7%	+181.1%	100%	100%	+184.5%
all	3	+210.7%	+181.1%	100%	100%	+184.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+181.1%	100%	+184.5%
10%	+154.2%	100%	+157.3%
15%	+129.6%	100%	+132.4%
20%	+107.1%	100%	+109.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +214% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +211% · $-wt +214% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$95 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$37

Realized+$286

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	38¢	$40	$37	−$3 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$31	+$57	+186%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$51	+$160	+312%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$51	+$69	+135%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	11m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	42¢	$31	24m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	27¢	$0	26m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	27¢	$88	26m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	9¢	$31	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	97¢	$211	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	23¢	$51	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	46¢	$0	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	44¢	$120	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.12 · official $37.12 (match) · 10 history records