Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdcfc…63c4 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$15 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$53
other 13% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.7% +7.4% 82% 73% +4.6%
≤30d 11 +18.7% +7.4% 82% 73% +4.6%
≤90d 11 +18.7% +7.4% 82% 73% +4.6%
all 11 +18.7% +7.4% 82% 73% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 73% +4.6%
10% -2.9% 55% -5.4%
15% -12.3% 45% -14.5%
20% -20.9% 27% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$25 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 57¢ 30¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 57¢ $25 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.94 · official $12.94 (match) · 23 history records