Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdcfc…e436 politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 387d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,930 (+646%) realized +$2,930 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +346% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +304% what you keep after slip
Net edge+304%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$183
14 days+$196
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% +$2,969
other 21% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+303.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +325.0% +284.5% 100% 100% +284.5%
≤30d 4 +44.6% +30.8% 50% 50% +31.2%
≤90d 4 +44.6% +30.8% 50% 50% +31.2%
all 6 +346.4% +303.9% 50% 50% +447.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +303.9% 50% +447.8%
10% +265.2% 50% +395.4%
15% +229.9% 50% +347.5%
20% +197.6% 50% +303.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +346% · $-wt +690% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,098 vs −$61 · ×18.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.11 per $1 lost it wins $18.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,930
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage387d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 +$183 +325%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10 Jun 12 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 03 $76 −$74 -96%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $111 +$3,056 +2750%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $56 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 82¢ $41 13d
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY Yes 3¢ $76 21d
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10 BUY No 64¢ $101 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 27¢ $67 349d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 4¢ $111 386d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records